lefthelper.blogg.se

Employment and unemployment numbers come from the household survey. Nonfarm jobs come from the payroll report.

It isn’t.Įvery month, the BLS posts two sets of numbers. People are holding on to most jobs compared to pre-recession stats, especially food service jobs.Īs a Phillips Curve proponent, Yellen believes that wage growth should be picking up.

Hopping is not going according to theory, neither is wage growth. The Journal article plotted “separations”, I plotted “quits” because they are voluntary. The Wall Street Journal reports A Tight Labor Market Should Prompt Job-Hopping. The above chart courtesy of Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog. Simply put, Phillips Curve proponents believe that falling unemployment leads to higher inflation. The Phillips Curve theory purports “that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship.” Then again, Janet Yellen also believes in the Phillips Curve despite the fact that a Fed Study Shows Phillips Curve Is Useless. The unemployment rate is so distorted that one might wonder why anyone puts any credence into it at all. ​The principle basis behind the tight labor theory is the falling unemployment rate. The “tight” labor theory concern is that employees will job hop, demanding higher and higher wages, which in turn will push up inflation forcing the Fed to hike rates more than it wants to. Here is a representative sample “ Most Districts cited on-going labor market tightness and challenges finding qualified workers across skills and sectors, which, in some instances, was described as constraining growth.” Turning the spotlight on the Beige Book Drivel I went back to the report and counted 31 instance of the word tight. The tight labor market will get even tighter, raising the specter that it will overheat.”įor further discussion, please see December Jobs Up 148K Following ADP 250K “Overheating” Estimate Robust Christmas sales prompted retailers and delivery services to add to their payrolls.

Ahead of the last jobs report, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, offered this amusing comment as noted by ADP: “The job market ended the year strongly.